Friday, March 10, 2023

More Fun With Statistics - Body Count and Marriage

"People who have no or fewer sex partners before marriage are more likely to be satisfied with their marriage and less likely to divorce."

Have you heard that or some variation of that?

Even if true, it would be completely useless to you if you've already married. If you've had "more" sex partners, then it would be all the more reason to avoid that terrible state contract! Or if she has. If you both have, that's EVEN MORE reason not to marry.

But some will find that statement useful in telling younger people to or anyone who has has "fewer" sex partners why they shouldn't have (more) sex outside of marriage.

It won't deter anyone who doesn't want to get married.

And it might not deter people who are good at analyzing data and statistics.

Let's look at a couple of graphs that are being used to push this message.





As Panscan points out, we're not seeing the entire graph. There's a 5 percent difference between people who have had 2 partners and people who've had eleven, twelve, or scores of partners. But it looks more dramatic when you remove all of the graph under 50 percent.

Also, if we're going to take the graph seriously, men who've had 6-10 partners are better off than men who've had four or five partners, and women who've had 11 or more partners are better off than women who've had 4 partners.

Even if a man "waited" for sex, there's still a 27 percent chance - more than 1 in 4, he will admit to not being very happy in his marriage. And for women, that's 35 percent - more than one in three!

Finally, notice that the husbands are happier than wives. Guys, don't be selfish by asking a woman to marry you!

Now let's look at the second graph.

This graph uses months.

Notice that people are divorcing a couple of years in. Guys, if you're foolish enough to marry, refuse to spend much on the wedding and related events.

80 months in (so a little over 6 and a half years in), the lowest rate of divorce is still 10 percent, meaning 1 in 10 couples. Most people will have had a 25 percent divorce rate! 1 in 4 couples!

Also, if we take this graph seriously, if you've had one premarital partner, you might as well have had countless, at lease as far as six years or so down the line.

What is really going on here?

Well, if we are to believe the data being used for that second graph as reported at ifstudies.org, people who have sex with the person they eventually marry are no more likely to divorce than the people who waited until they married to have sex. You won't see the "wait!" people touting that.

Who has zero or few sex partners before marriage?

A) The very religious

B) People who are otherwise not motivated to get sexual partners or are unsuccessful at attracting sexual partners

C) People who, out of inertia and/or other reasons, stay with their partner no matter what

There can be overlap between the categories.

The very religious are pressured to wait for marriage, get married, and never talk badly about their marriage, and sty married. That means they could be miserable but still reporting they are "very happy." If getting and being married is seen as some sort of praiseworthy major accomplishment, they are happy to be married.

A starving man who is given plain rice is going to be thrilled with it. And if he's never had any rice at all before, he's not going to know if it wasn't cooked well or is of poor quality.

People with a lot of experience are more likely to know if a relationship isn't going well.

We all know people who stayed with their first boyfriend/girlfriend as long as they could, because it is what they knew. If they didn't marry that person, they might marry the very next person they get with; not because they are a great match, but because they don't want to uncertainty or change of "starting all over" with a new relationship, or because they think they can't get someone else.

If someone isn't good at meeting and attracting people and getting things to the point of sexual interaction, there is more of a chance they are going to be happy to have anyone at all. If someone doesn't have much of a sex drive, they will be happy with a marital sex life that isn't someone those of us with a strong drive would find to be good.

The second graph specifically says "premarital" partners. I don't know of the first graph filters out people who are married but aren't monogamous, like swingers or cheaters, as it would be possible for a person who has 0-2 partners before marrying to have many more while married. If someone is cheating or being cheated on, they probably aren't very happy in their marriage.

There are some important things to remember when someone brings up these claims:

They are counting on self-reporting when it comes to both the number of partners and how happy they are.

What counts as sex? If a man has gone to a sex worker, do they count that? If a woman was giving fellatio while out of town on spring break, do they count that? Are happy ending massages counted?

Not legally divorcing isn't the only indication of how a marriage is doing. There's legal separation, geographic separation, social separation, dead bedrooms, cheating, contempt, indifference, abuse, and all sorts of misery - and people often try to hide it from others and might not even admit it themselves.

People who aren't happy are more likely to divorce, and thus not be counted as married.

Once again, if the study were to separate out men who have their act together and have intentionally avoided marriage, they will find some who are much happier than the average husband.

Statistics are about a population. Any given individual or couple might be different than the apparent majority. There are people who've had many partners and are very happy in their marriage. In fact, close to 60 percent of men who've had 21 or more partners claim to be very happy in their marriages - if we are to believe that first graph.

Again, people often divorce if they're not happy, leaving the people who are still married to skew the marriage stats. The bottom line is that most marriages fail and marriage is a terrible state contract for most men.

Related: Life on the Carousel

Personally, I tried to make the relationships with my first and second serious girlfriends work even though they were both doomed. Why? Because they were my earliest relationships and I hadn't had much experience at all before. If I had married either of them there is a chance we'd still be married, as disastrous as it would have been.

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