Correlation Isn't Causation: Lower Risk of Divorce in Religious Young Marrieds

"A study shows that religious people who marry young and didn't shack up are less likely to divorce!"

The people who tout this want you to believe that if you're religious and marry young, without shacking up, you'll have a lasting, happy marriage.

Well, it might last legally.

There are other studies, though, that show that among all people who marry, people who marry in their late twenties are less likely to divorce than people who marry before then.

What gives?

There's a hint in the fact that people who marry really young don't have the time to cohabitate before they marry. It's a bit like saying that there's a low cancer rate among people killed in school shootings.

Here's what's going on.

People who are so religious that they get married young (this avoids unmarried sex) without having shacked up are also going to be so religious as to think that divorce is a terrible sin (also, they are probably living where - geographically and subculturally - there aren't a lot of options for other partners/spouses should they divorce). So they stay married.

Now, you might ask if these really are happy marriages.

The same people who want you to believe it's a good idea to marry young without shacking up also will tell you these people who've done that report that they are happy (with their marriage).

Of course they do! Because:

1. They see the alternative as being a terrible sinner, a pariah if they were divorced, looked upon with disapproval by the people who have been most important in their life. They aren't comparing their marriage to true freedom or another marriage. They are comparing it to having lawyers and courts and shaming and gossip and no sex or affection or company at all.

2. Admitting to researchers that they are miserable, or even just less than very happy, with their marriage is considered sin (such as ingratitude).

3. If they have picked up any of the "Word of Faith" type thinking, they would think it is a "negative confession" to say their marriage isn't great; they think it would make their marriage worse to admit it.

So, what happens? They stay together, miserable, and deal with it by eating, drinking, antidepressants, golfing, watching football all weekend, maybe beating each other up, having affairs, suicide, etc.

I know these people. I've been around a lot of them. A lot of them will claim to be ever so happy in their marriage right up until the moment they file for divorce, or kill themselves, or admit to an affair, or worse. Yes, some of them will divorce, just later.

I discourage most men from legally marrying or from shacking up, but if you're going to marry, DO NOT DO IT until you've achieved your dream. Don't believe these misleading reports. Yes, it would be nice to have a wife who "doesn't believe in divorce" but not if it means misery.